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Could trains overtake planes?

Exploring the future of the passenger aviation industry

Download the full report

Within 20 years China has built the world’s longest high speed rail network. We can see the policy agenda in other areas such as mainland Europe and Turkey encouraging the development of new high speed rail routes that will destroy the profitability of some popular short-haul routes.

We think this will have a big impact on the future of aviation - but it will not be the only thing. Big items such as the balance of global wealth and the rise of an older middle class living in larger cities will change passenger choices.

Similarly, small things, like bags, have a big impact on the way the world of aviation currently operates. We think small changes in the way bags are handled, even with today’s technology will transform our flying experience.

Exploring the future of the passenger aviation industry [6eA64Fvd_II]
Exploring the future of the passenger aviation industry

About the report

PA and Oxera Consulting have undertaken research to examine these issues and have developed four possible future scenarios which could change the face of the sector – Destination Anywhere World, Nouveau Jet-Set World, Sky-Party World, Hop-on Hop-off World. Each one explores how the industry might look in 2034.

Download the full report


PA and Oxera have tapped into a rich seam of data enabling them to create visionary and thought-provoking views of the future of aviation.

- Phil Maher, Director of Operations; Virgin Atlantic

A Hop-on Hop-off World is almost possible with today’s technology. I'd like to see people compressing their bags and think there are big gains from this.

- Craig Smyth, CEO Menzies Aviation (2004-2014)

Key industry trends

The shape of the passenger aviation industry will be determined by a number of macro factors – economic, technology, consumer experience, environment and government, policy and regulation.

Aviation in 2013
[ Zoom ]
Destination Anywhere
Destination Anywhere Boarding Pass
[ Zoom ]
Nouveau jet-set
Nouveau jet-set
[ Zoom ]
Sky party world
Sky party world
[ Zoom ]
Hop-on Hop-off
Hop-on Hop-off

Contact us

PA and Oxera are pleased to make a contribution to the discussion about the future of global aviation.

Click here to view the video or download the report.

Chris Lynch

Chris Lynch
Head of Global Aviation

Email | LinkedIn | Twitter

Dominic Gibbeson

Dominic Gibbeson
Strategy Expert

Email | LinkedIn

Download our report to discover the issues affecting the aviation sector and how we think the industry might look in 2034.

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