PA's modelling expertise sought by Centrica Energy

In early 2009, at a time the UK was experiencing its coldest winter for decades gas demand reached record highs. Several 'gas balancing alerts' were issued providing a signal to the market that additional supplies may be required. Against this backdrop, Centrica Energy sought PA’s energy modelling expertise to assess how far natural gas quality may limit future gas imports from continental Europe.

Analysis from PA's European Gas Flow Model (footnote 1) indicates the UK could encounter a natural gas shortfall of up to 7.7 percent of total demand on the coldest winter’s day by 2014. If there is insufficient natural gas available on the Continent which meets the tighter British specification, natural gas would need to be met by other higher priced supply alternatives (e.g. from the Norwegian gas fields and LNG), which could impact wholesale natural gas prices.

The PA branded Gas Quality Report was utilised by Centrica Energy in its discussions with Government, Ofgem (the British energy regulator) and gas transporters. All Interconnector UK shippers were also sent a copy.

To learn more about our gas modelling capabilities, or for a copy of the report, please contact us now. 

Footnote 1: The PA European Gas Flow Model is a nodal flow model which approximates European gas flows for a single day. This intuitive, transparent and easy to understand model produces an accurate simulation of European gas flows and can easily be adjusted to operate under a range of scenarios and different underlying assumptions. It has been developed independently by PA.