Harris inherits a climate countdown

David Cherney suggests that while presidential influence matters, market trends towards renewable energy and decarbonization will continue regardless. However, Harris will need to accelerate action, as the nation’s climate commitments are slipping, with high stakes in the upcoming election.

Not all analysts think the election will impact the country’s emissions trajectory. Emissions have steadily declined under Democratic and Republican administrations, said David Cherney, who tracks the power industry at PA Consulting. Trends outside a president’s control often have greater bearing on emissions, he noted.

Companies have continued to close deals for new wind, solar or gas projects, a contrast to previous election years when investors waited to make final decisions about projects until the votes were tallied, Cherney said.

“That lack of a slowdown from people who are putting billions of dollars at risk I think helps reinforce, at least in my mind, that regardless of who sits in the White House, we are going to see continued decarbonization because that’s what the capital markets are expecting,” Cherney said.

The question for the United States is how quickly will it decarbonize in the coming years. In climate terms, the only metric that counts is the concentration of greenhouse gases — and those continue to steadily increase globally.

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